目錄
**章 引言 1
**節(jié) 人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的現(xiàn)實(shí)背景 1
第二節(jié) 人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變面臨的主要問(wèn)題 10
第三節(jié) 本書(shū)的邏輯思路和主要內(nèi)容 17
第二章 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 34
**節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論 34
第二節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展理論 39
第三節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的聯(lián)系與區(qū)別 43
第四節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的目的和動(dòng)力 49
第五節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式的內(nèi)涵與類型 52
第六節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的內(nèi)涵和目標(biāo) 55
第七節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的關(guān)系 58
第八節(jié) 中國(guó)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)方式和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式的探究 59
小結(jié) 63
第三章 人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)之關(guān)系的理論 65
**節(jié) 人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系的爭(zhēng)論 65
第二節(jié) 人口數(shù)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 67
第三節(jié) 人口質(zhì)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 83
第四節(jié) 人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變動(dòng)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 90
第五節(jié) 人口流動(dòng)、集聚與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 100
第六節(jié) 人口活躍度與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展 110
第七節(jié) 人口發(fā)展與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變 112
第八節(jié) 人口負(fù)增長(zhǎng)下經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展理論 117
小結(jié) 122
第四章 世界人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變實(shí)踐 124
**節(jié) OECD國(guó)家人口發(fā)展?fàn)顩r 124
第二節(jié) OECD國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展情況 139
第三節(jié) OECD國(guó)家人口變動(dòng)對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變影響的定量分析 154
小結(jié) 171
第五章 中國(guó)人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的軌跡和方式轉(zhuǎn)變實(shí)踐 174
**節(jié) 中國(guó)人口發(fā)展歷史軌跡 174
第二節(jié) 中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)、經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展及其方式轉(zhuǎn)變 183
第三節(jié) 中國(guó)人口在經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展中的作用實(shí)證結(jié)果 195
小結(jié) 216
第六章 中國(guó)人口未來(lái)發(fā)展：規(guī)模、結(jié)構(gòu)、素質(zhì) 218
**節(jié) 中國(guó)人口壽命水平和死亡模式未來(lái)變動(dòng) 218
第二節(jié) 生育水平、生育模式變動(dòng) 238
第三節(jié) 人口城鎮(zhèn)化及其轉(zhuǎn)移模式和教育水平及架構(gòu) 247
第四節(jié) 預(yù)測(cè)模型、估算方法和參數(shù)確定 256
第五節(jié) 中國(guó)未來(lái)人口發(fā)展：規(guī)模變動(dòng)和結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)換 265
第六節(jié) 人口教育結(jié)構(gòu)和人力資本變動(dòng) 276
小結(jié) 284
第七章 人口約束下未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的目標(biāo)和動(dòng)力 287
**節(jié) 未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的目標(biāo) 288
第二節(jié) 未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變中的動(dòng)力轉(zhuǎn)換 295
小結(jié) 312
第八章 人口約束下未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的系統(tǒng)模擬 314
**節(jié) 人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的系統(tǒng)動(dòng)力學(xué)模型 314
第二節(jié) 人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)模型檢驗(yàn) 325
第三節(jié) 保持2000～2019年經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變態(tài)勢(shì)的效果仿真 332
第四節(jié) 人口約束下未來(lái)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變途徑效果仿真 341
第五節(jié) 經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的未來(lái)選擇 369
小結(jié) 376
第九章 人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變的政策支撐體系 377
**節(jié) 人口與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變政策支撐體系的邏輯框架 377
第二節(jié) 建立政策支持體系的目的 380
第三節(jié) 保障經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展實(shí)現(xiàn)途徑轉(zhuǎn)換的政策支持體系 386
第四節(jié) 發(fā)揮人口回旋優(yōu)勢(shì)的政策支持體系 395
小結(jié) 401
參考文獻(xiàn) 403
人名索引 422
后記 428
Contents
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 The Realistic Background of Population and Economic Development 1
1.2 Major Problems in the Population and the Transformation of Economic Development Mode 10
1.3 The Logical Thinking and Main Contents in the Book 17
Chapter 2 Economic Growth and Economic Development 34
2.1 Economic Growth and Economic Growth Theory 34
2.2 Economic Development and Economic Development Theory 39
2.3 The Relationships and Differences Between Economic Growth and Economic Development 43
2.4 The Aims and Dynamic of Economic Growth and Economic Development 49
2.5 The Connotation and Types of Economic Growth Mode 52
2.6 The Connotation and Goals of Economic Development Mode 55
2.7 The Relationships Between Economic Growth Mode and Economic Development Mode 58
2.8 The Exploration of Economic Growth Mode and Economic Development Mode in China 59
Summary 63
Chapter 3 Theories of the Relationship Between Population and Economy 65
3.1 Disputes on the Relationship Between Population and Economy 65
3.2 Population Quantity and Economic Growth 67
3.3 Population Quality and Economic Growth 83
3.4 Changes in Population Age Structure and Economic Growth 90
3.5 Population Mobility， Population Agglomeration and Economic Development 100
3.6 Populations Active Factors and Economic Development 110
3.7 Population Development and the Transformation of Economic Development Mode 112
3.8 The Economic Development Theory Under the Negative Population Growth 117
Summary 122
Chapter 4 The Practice of the Population and the Transformation of Economic Development Mode in the World 124
4.1 The Fact of Population Development in OECD Countries 124
4.2 The Fact of Economic Development in OECD Countries 139
4.4 The Quantitative Analysis of the Effect of Population Changes on the Transformation of Economic Development Mode in OECD Countries 154
Summary 171
Chapter 5 The Practice of the Population and the Transformation of Economic Development Mode in China 174
5.1 The Historical Fact of Population Development in China 174
5.2 The Economic Growth， Economic Development and Its Transformation Mode in China 183
5.3 The Empirical Results of the Role of Population in Economic Development 195
Summary 216
Chapter 6 The Future Development of Chinas Population: Scale， Structure and Quality 218
6.1 Future Changes in Life Expectancies and Mortality Patterns of Chinas Population 218
6.2 Changes in Fertility Level and Fertility Pattern 238
6.3 Population Urbanization and Its Transformation Mode， Education Level and Framework 247
6.4 The Prediction Model， Estimation Methods and Parameter Determinations 256
6.5 Future Development of Chinas Population: Scale Changes and Structure Transformation 265
6.6 Population Education Structure and Human Capital Changes 276
Summary 284
Chapter 7 The Target and Dynamic of the Future Economic Development Mode Transformation Under the Population Constraints 287
7.1 The Target of the Future Economic Development Mode Transformation 288
7.2 The Dynamic of the Future Economic Development Mode Transformation 295
Summary 312
Chapter 8 The Systematic Simulation of the Future Economic Development Mode Transformation Under the Population Constraints 314
8.1 The System Dynamics Model of the Population and Economic Development 314
8.2 Tests of the Population and Economic System Models 325
8.3 The Effect Simulation of Maintaining the Transform